Pre-electoral analysis 12-M: An uncertain future for post-procés Catalonia

Pre-electoral analysis 12-M: An uncertain future for post-procés Catalonia

This Sunday, 12 May, the Catalans are called to the polls in elections that are the result of the lack of support for the monochrome Executive of Esquerra Republicana. These elections come at a decisive moment for Catalonia, as they could consolidate a change of axis and cycle in Catalan politics or, on the contrary, give some breathing space to a procès-guerre that has been at its lowest ebb since the departure of Junts del Govern.

Salvador Illa’s victory seems unequivocal, but, as in 2021, it might not be enough for him to govern in the event that he does not manage to articulate a majority for his investiture. Given this, up to five scenarios are open (with variations) and it is likely that on election night itself it will be difficult to know the name of the next president and the composition of the new Government. Thus, everything suggests that a long, complex round of negotiations will begin on the 13th, which could even end with a repeat election in October.

For this reason, KREAB’s Barcelona office has prepared a pre-electoral analysis that includes the main keys to understanding the context of the elections, the elements that may condition the results, and their implications at the national and Barcelona levels. It also offers a review of the polls and possible scenarios, analyses the parties and their respective candidates, and reviews the development of the conversation on social networks during the campaign.