Kreab Research Unit presents a new trend report at a time of high uncertainty and utmost unpredictability

After the failure of Pedro Sánchez in the investiture, Spain faces the risk of running a whole year without standardised legislative activity

Kreab Research Unit has presented a new report on the scenarios that open up in the next quarter. We have analysed a country that suffers constant political shocks, that is in regulatory paralysis and that lives in a European and international context of a highly unpredictable nature. We have also done it at the heart of a two month cycle that could lead Spain to new General Elections.

The failure of Pedro Sánchez to bring to fruition his negotiations to be invested as President of the Government keeps our country under a functioning government, without a normalised functioning of its institutional system and before the possibility of an electoral repetition.

Despite the difficulties arising from the lack of political agreement, the economy has taken enough inertia to continue, and for the next few months, impervious to paralysis.

In addition, legislative activity in the European Parliament will start over the next few months. It will do so after the elections of last May 26, which threw a distribution of unheard forces into the mix.

In this new report, the relevant key points of the economy, the labour market, the political situation and the international context will be found in order to better anticipate the future scenarios towards which we are heading. We rely on the added value of backing knowledge in the search for certainties in these times of high volatility.

Among the constant political shocks, regulatory paralysis and the European context of a highly unpredictable nature, the report draws some conclusions:

• The national political situation will lead Spain to accumulate almost 20 months of an acting Government, with the consequent institutional and regulatory paralysis that this entails.
• When there are only a few days left before the legal deadline for the formation of the Government, Catalonia will celebrate a new Diada that, together with the judgment of the Catalan process, will influence the national political context.
• The economy will continue to grow despite the paralysis, although less than in 2018, which will confirm an incipient slowdown.
• The situation of our labour market will continue to improve over the next few months, reaching 20 million employed.
• The new European leaders face an unprecedented political context, among which the definitive exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union stands out, something that will test the strength of the common project.

To access the Executive Summary prepared by Kreab Research Unit click here.

If you wish to subscribe to the full report, you can write to comunicacion@kreab.com