News | Narciso Michavila rules out in Encuentros Kreab that the left or the right will gain enough on 10N

Jaime Olmos, Narciso Michavila and Borja Bergareche analyse the latest electoral analysis data in Encuentros Kreab

18/11/2019

Narciso Michavila rules out in Encuentros Kreab that the left or the right will gain enough on 10N

Narciso Michavila, founder of GAD3, shared this morning in Encuentros Kreab the latest electoral analysis data that he manages from the institute of sociological research, which he chairs. Their specialists already handle more than 700 daily surveys to scrutinise electoral trends, a sample that they plan to expand to more than 1,000 people in the coming days.

 

According to GAD3 voting intention data, a PSOE victory – with a result of around 130 deputies – seems to be nailed on in the 10th November elections. According to these samples, Michavila explained that it also seems clear that neither the left-wing block (PSOE, Unidos Podemos and Mas Pais) nor the right-wing block (PP, Ciudadanos and VOX) will gain enough for a majority. Therefore, the two main parties are condemned to understand each other.

In any case, this scenario could change from here to 10N because “two weeks electorally speaking is an eternity,” Michavila said. He quoted some of the uncertainty factors being the mobilisation of the Catalan electorate after the ”proces” sentencing, the result that the televised debate may have on the 4th of November, voters’ sensitivity to the economic slowdown and the impact of Brexit, expected for the 31st of October.

For the president of GAD3, the vote is now more and more being decided in the last days of the campaign. Given this tendency to procrastinate with the ballot, the demographic sector has been claiming for years the possibility of publishing surveys and polls for longer in electoral campaigns. It should be remembered that the electoral law has for decades prohibited polling in the last six days before the electoral journey.

Michavila advocated the effectiveness of surveys and demographic methods to interpret and follow electoral trends: “Every survey is bubbling from the beginning since it is a process of statistical inference,” he said. Michavila belives the credibility of the sector to be resounding. Today, citizens “do not lie” because they have have no shame when showing their political opinion. Thus, in Michavila’s words, “at the moment the demographic tools are of utmost precision and relevance”.

 

About Narciso Michavila

Narciso Michavila is President and founder of GAD3, a research and consulting institute with extensive experience in conducting sociological research and strategic advice for the implementation of business and public policies in Spain and Latin America. He is a regular guest speaker and collaborator in the media as a public opinion analyst.

Michavila is a Doctor of Political Science and Sociology from the Complutense University of Madrid, he has a Master in Statistics from the same university and a specialist in Social Research Design from the Centre for Sociological Research. He is also Commander of the Upper Scale Artillery on leave and was a spokesman for the West Multinational Brigade in Kosovo in 2002.

 

About Encuentros Kreab

Encuentros Kreab (Kreab Meetings) were created with the aim of promoting dialogue from the most influential opinion leaders in the country in an exclusive, private and off the record environment. These meetings have become a forum for debate and reflection on the political, economic and social situation in Spain. With attendances between 25 and 50 people, these meetings allow for networking and contact exchanges.

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